{
  "version": 1,
  "updatedAt": "2026-08-21",
  "description": "Public maturity tracker for AI-era human–AI decision research. Stage reflects project artifacts, not scientific certainty.",
  "canonicalUrl": "https://cognitive-biases.github.io/ai-era/tracker/",
  "stageOrder": [
    "idea",
    "protocol",
    "experiment",
    "result",
    "replication"
  ],
  "stageDefinitions": {
    "idea": "A falsifiable research question with related established concepts, but no project protocol yet.",
    "protocol": "A reproducible comparison protocol is published. No project result is implied.",
    "experiment": "A preregistered or otherwise documented run exists with model/task/sample metadata, but results are not yet promoted to a finding.",
    "result": "A project result is published with methods, raw or summary data, uncertainty and limitations.",
    "replication": "The result has been repeated across a meaningfully different sample, task, model or independent group."
  },
  "interpretationRule": "Never infer a later stage from external papers alone. External evidence can motivate a track, but project stages advance only when the corresponding project artifact exists.",
  "entries": [
    {
      "track": "ai-anchoring-loop",
      "name": "AI Anchoring Loop",
      "stage": "protocol",
      "protocolSlugs": [
        "ai-advice-order"
      ],
      "studyArtifacts": [
        "/research/ai-advice-order-v1/",
        "/experiments/ai-advice-order-v1/",
        "/data/studies/ai-advice-order-v1.json"
      ],
      "nextMilestone": "Collect 40 complete adult pilot sessions under the preregistered AI Advice Order v1 protocol, then publish anonymized data, scoring output, limitations and any deviations before considering result stage.",
      "whyItMatters": "AI can become the first numerical reference before a person has formed an independent estimate."
    },
    {
      "track": "sycophancy-reinforcement-loop",
      "name": "Sycophancy Reinforcement Loop",
      "stage": "protocol",
      "protocolSlugs": [
        "agreement-pressure"
      ],
      "nextMilestone": "Separate model agreement from human confidence and test neutral, preference-signalling and counterevidence conditions.",
      "whyItMatters": "An agreeable answer can be mistaken for independent support for a view the user already signalled."
    },
    {
      "track": "cognitive-offloading-debt",
      "name": "Cognitive Offloading Debt",
      "stage": "protocol",
      "protocolSlugs": [
        "offloading-retention"
      ],
      "nextMilestone": "Run an immediate-quality plus delayed-retention comparison rather than measuring task completion alone.",
      "whyItMatters": "Faster completion and durable understanding are different outcomes."
    },
    {
      "track": "source-memory-blur",
      "name": "Source-Memory Blur",
      "stage": "protocol",
      "protocolSlugs": [
        "source-memory"
      ],
      "nextMilestone": "Measure delayed source attribution for human-only, AI-only and mixed creation conditions.",
      "whyItMatters": "Mixed workflows may make it harder to remember whether an idea came from the person, a source or the model."
    },
    {
      "track": "synthetic-consensus-illusion",
      "name": "Synthetic Consensus Illusion",
      "stage": "idea",
      "protocolSlugs": [],
      "nextMilestone": "Publish a protocol comparing several apparently independent AI answers with the same answers plus source-lineage disclosure.",
      "whyItMatters": "Several generated answers may feel like independent confirmation even when their information lineage overlaps."
    },
    {
      "track": "confidence-transfer",
      "name": "Confidence Transfer",
      "stage": "idea",
      "protocolSlugs": [],
      "nextMilestone": "Publish a protocol holding answer quality constant while varying certainty language and objective calibration information.",
      "whyItMatters": "Confident wording may change human reliance even when the underlying evidence does not improve."
    }
  ]
}