{
  "slug": "state-of-evidence-2026",
  "title": "State of Cognitive Bias Evidence 2026",
  "summary": "A data-backed review of where common cognitive-bias claims look strong, mixed, easy to confuse, or still under-reviewed.",
  "updatedAt": "2026-08-18",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Corrections usually help more than the backfire story suggests",
      "conceptSlugs": [
        "confirmation-bias-backfire-effect"
      ],
      "interpretation": "Backfire is a memorable claim, but the reviewed evidence does not support treating it as the normal result of correction. The useful distinction is between disagreement, incomplete updating and a measured increase in the false belief."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Retrospective judgment needs two different checks",
      "conceptSlugs": [
        "cognitive-bias-hindsight-bias",
        "cognitive-bias-outcome-bias"
      ],
      "interpretation": "Knowing the outcome can distort both perceived predictability and evaluation of the earlier decision. Keeping forecasts and decision rationales before the outcome gives reviewers something better than reconstructed memory."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Repetition is not independent evidence",
      "conceptSlugs": [
        "truth-judgment-illusory-truth-effect"
      ],
      "interpretation": "Repeated claims can feel more true even when repetition adds no new evidence. This matters especially when several pages or AI outputs are recycling the same source."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Uncertainty is a result, not a publishing failure",
      "conceptSlugs": [],
      "interpretation": "Mixed, contested and unreviewed states are useful outputs. They show where a confident internet summary would be stronger than the reviewed evidence."
    }
  ],
  "uncertainty": "This report summarizes the reviewed subset of the Cognitive Biases corpus. It is not a systematic review of every cognitive-bias study, and coverage is uneven across concepts.",
  "releaseVersion": "2026.08.18",
  "schemaVersion": "1.0.0",
  "metrics": {
    "releaseVersion": "2026.08.18",
    "schemaVersion": "1.0.0",
    "releaseDate": "2026-08-18",
    "concepts": 219,
    "evidenceReviewedConcepts": 36,
    "reviewedWithMultipleSources": 36,
    "uniqueSources": 103,
    "contexts": 11,
    "comparisons": 15,
    "reviewedRelations": 6,
    "researchNotes": 17,
    "practiceSets": 11,
    "practiceScenarios": 57,
    "evidenceClasses": {
      "established": 15,
      "supported": 13,
      "mixed": 3,
      "contested": 1,
      "domain-specific": 3,
      "concept": 1
    },
    "freshness": {
      "current": 36,
      "due": 0,
      "stale": 0,
      "unreviewed": 0
    },
    "translations": {
      "de": {
        "total": 36,
        "reviewed": 3,
        "stale": 0,
        "draft": 0,
        "missing": 33
      },
      "ru": {
        "total": 36,
        "reviewed": 3,
        "stale": 0,
        "draft": 0,
        "missing": 33
      }
    }
  },
  "canonicalUrl": "https://cognitive-biases.github.io/research/state-of-evidence-2026/"
}