BiasCognitive Dissonance · Entry 18
Normalcy Bias – when you believe nothing bad will happen
Do you believe disasters only happen to others, not you? That’s Normalcy Bias – the tendency to ignore or underestimate the likelihood of rare but serious events just because they haven’t happened before.
Where it can show up
- Natural disasters – people refuse to evacuate before a hurricane because “nothing bad has happened before.”
- Financial crises – investors don’t believe in a market crash until it actually happens.
- Health – “I’ve never been sick, so I’ll be fine,” even when symptoms clearly indicate a problem.
A practical countermeasure
- Accept reality, not comfortable beliefs – just because something hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t.
- Assess risks in advance – it’s better to prepare than to assume you’ll be lucky.
- Learn from others’ mistakes – disasters have happened before, and you’re not immune.
