PhenomenonEgocentric Bias · Entry 31
Illusion of Control – when you think you have more influence than you do
Do you believe your actions influence events that are actually out of your control? That’s Illusion of Control – the tendency to overestimate your ability to manage external circumstances.
Where it can show up
- Gambling – you throw dice in a ‘special’ way, believing it affects the outcome.
- Work – you assume a project's success is entirely in your hands, ignoring external factors.
- Personal life – you believe you can change someone’s behavior if you try hard enough.
A practical countermeasure
- Separate what you can control from what you can’t – focus your efforts where they actually make a difference.
- Don’t mistake randomness for causation – sometimes, things just happen regardless of your input.
- Evaluate outcomes objectively – if you truly have control, your influence should be consistent and predictable.
