PhenomenonEgocentric Bias · Entry 33
Illusion of Validity – when you think your judgments are more accurate than they are
Do you believe your judgments are accurate just because the available information fits together well? That’s Illusion of Validity – the tendency to overestimate the accuracy of one’s judgments, especially when data appears logically consistent.
Where it can show up
- Finance – an investor assumes their market predictions are correct because past guesses were right.
- Career – an HR manager believes they can perfectly identify top candidates, ignoring past hiring mistakes.
- Logic – if multiple facts form a coherent story, it feels true, even if it’s just a coincidence.
A practical countermeasure
- Don’t confuse coherence with accuracy – even the most logical scenarios can be wrong.
- Look for validation beyond your own logic – check the data, not just your intuition.
- Allow room for error – if you feel 100% certain, chances are you’re overlooking something.
