FallacyExtension Neglect · Entry 43
Conjunction Fallacy – when a specific scenario seems more likely than a general one
Do detailed stories seem more likely than simple ones? That’s Conjunction Fallacy – the tendency to assume that a specific combination of conditions is more probable than a single condition, even though that’s statistically impossible.
Where it can show up
- News – “A journalist advocating for women’s rights won the election” seems more likely than just “A journalist won the election.”
- Predictions – “There will be an economic crisis next year due to political instability” feels more plausible than just “There will be an economic crisis next year.”
- Stereotypes – if someone studies philosophy, you assume “A philosopher who loves yoga” is more probable than just “A philosopher.”
A practical countermeasure
- Remember that specifics are always less probable than general events – the more conditions you add, the less likely the scenario.
- Don’t fall for compelling narratives – the more detailed a scenario, the more likely it’s just a well-crafted story rather than reality.
- Check your logic – if a detailed event seems more probable than a simple one, stop and think again.
