Review roadmap choices without letting the loudest request, recent event or prior investment define value.
Open →Decision technique
Incremental-value check
Evaluate the next step using future cost and value rather than resources already spent.
When to use
A specific reasoning move for a specific problem.
When a project, product or career path continues mainly because of past investment.
Procedure
Run the technique.
- Write what has already been spent and mark it as unrecoverable.
- Estimate the future cost of the next step.
- Estimate the future value and uncertainty of the next step.
- Ask whether you would fund that next step if the project arrived today with no history.
Limit
What this technique cannot guarantee.
Past investment can contain useful information about capability or switching cost; ignore sunk cost, not relevant future consequences.
Situations
Where this may be useful.
Compare staying, moving or reskilling without letting salary anchors, sunk time or today's mood decide the future.
Open →Evidence-linked concepts
Why this check may matter.
Read the evidence and limits before treating this technique as relevant.
Open →Practice this technique
See when the move becomes useful.
A feature has consumed eight months of work. New research shows limited demand, but the team argues that stopping would waste the investment.
Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →A specialist dislikes the current path but says changing direction would waste twelve years of experience. The next year is evaluated mainly through the past investment.
Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →