Decision situation

Product prioritization

Review roadmap choices without letting the loudest request, recent event or prior investment define value.

Use Decision Audit

Signals to notice

Reasons to slow down and check.

Questions before action

Make the missing evidence visible.

Relevant lenses

Concepts that may help you test the reasoning.

Evidence-linked lensEscalation of Commitment

Use this concept as a question to test the decision, not as a label for a person.

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Evidence-linked lensAvailability Heuristic

Use this concept as a question to test the decision, not as a label for a person.

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Evidence-linked lensConfirmation Bias

Use this concept as a question to test the decision, not as a label for a person.

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Practical moves

Do something different, not only notice a label.

TechniqueIncremental-value check

Evaluate the next step using future cost and value rather than resources already spent.

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TechniqueBase-rate check

Compare a vivid case with the broader frequency or distribution that should inform the judgment.

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TechniquePredefined decision criteria

Fix the comparison dimensions before a preferred option makes the criteria move.

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Skill to develop

Decision making under uncertainty

You can make a decision without pretending uncertainty has disappeared.