Cognitive BiasesPublic knowledge library

Free cognitive-bias Agent Skill

Hot-Hand Fallacy

Use Hot-Hand Fallacy as a focused cognitive-bias lens. Explain the pattern, check whether it plausibly fits the situation, surface an alternative non-bias explanation, and return a practical counter-check without diagnosing people or claiming causation.

Agent SkillsHermes AgentOpenClawChatGPT SkillsCodex

Open SKILL.md Read canonical bias

What the agent should do

Use one bias carefully, not as a diagnosis.

Canonical definition

Did you make three shots in a row and now feel like the fourth is more likely to go in? That’s Hot-Hand Fallacy – the belief that after a streak of success, your chances of continued success increase, even when events are random.

Evidence, related concepts and current review state →

Output

  • Plain-language explanation
  • Observed signal
  • Alternative explanation
  • Evidence boundary
  • Practical counter-check
  • What would change the assessment

Install

Free. One SKILL.md. No API key.

Hermes Agent

mkdir -p ~/.hermes/skills/bias-logical-fallacy-hot && curl -fsSL https://cognitive-biases.github.io/agent-skills/bias-logical-fallacy-hot/SKILL.md -o ~/.hermes/skills/bias-logical-fallacy-hot/SKILL.md

OpenClaw

mkdir -p ~/.openclaw/workspace/skills/bias-logical-fallacy-hot && curl -fsSL https://cognitive-biases.github.io/agent-skills/bias-logical-fallacy-hot/SKILL.md -o ~/.openclaw/workspace/skills/bias-logical-fallacy-hot/SKILL.md

Other Agent Skills-compatible tools

Download SKILL.md and put it in the skill directory or import surface supported by your agent.

Boundary

A lens, not a verdict.

The skill must preserve uncertainty, surface a non-bias explanation and avoid turning a cognitive-bias label into a claim about a person's motives, intelligence or mental health.

Free to install · instruction-only · no secrets · no executable code · no required network access