FallacyReasoning & flexibility · Logical Fallacy · Entry 67
Hot-Hand Fallacy – when you think winning increases your chances of winning again
Did you make three shots in a row and now feel like the fourth is more likely to go in? That’s Hot-Hand Fallacy – the belief that after a streak of success, your chances of continued success increase, even when events are random.
Where it can show up
- Sports – a basketball player makes three shots in a row, and everyone thinks he’s ‘on fire,’ even though each shot is independent.
- Gambling – a player wins multiple times and bets more, believing their ‘hot streak’ will continue.
- Investments – when stocks keep rising, people assume they’ll keep going up, but markets don’t work that way.
A practical countermeasure
- Remember that random events are independent – past success doesn’t change future probabilities.
- Don’t confuse skill with luck – if your success is based on skill, it might be predictable, but if it’s random, it’s not.
- Avoid overconfidence – winning before doesn’t guarantee winning again, especially in chance-based situations.
