PhenomenonBelief updating · Cognitive Bias · Entry 125
Turkey Illusion – when you assume stability until disaster strikes
Do you assume things will stay the same just because they’ve always been stable? That’s Turkey Illusion – the tendency to ignore the risk of sudden change just because the past has been smooth.
Where it can show up
- Financial markets – investors believe stocks will keep rising until a sudden crash wipes out gains.
- Business & careers – companies and employees assume success will last forever, until an unexpected failure.
- Politics & society – people don’t expect crises or revolutions until they suddenly happen.
A practical countermeasure
- Remember that stability isn’t a guarantee – past success doesn’t mean the future is secure.
- Assess risks even when they seem invisible – disasters often build up slowly before striking suddenly.
- Be prepared for surprises – history shows that the unexpected is always just around the corner.