Work & Career · 2 minute read
Why a Good Result Does Not Always Mean a Good Decision
Luck can produce a good outcome from a weak process, while a strong decision can still end badly under uncertainty.
A normal situation
A manager makes a risky choice with little evidence and the project succeeds. Later the choice is praised as brilliant, even though the same process could easily have failed.
What is happening?
Once the result is known, it is tempting to judge the earlier decision mainly through that result. But decision quality also depends on the information, alternatives and uncertainty available at the time.
Teams that reward outcomes without reviewing process can learn the wrong lesson. Lucky decisions may be repeated, while sensible decisions with unlucky outcomes may be abandoned.
The useful lens
Outcome Bias
This does not prove that one bias caused the decision. It is a useful lens for asking a better question and checking the evidence.
Evidence note: Outcome bias occurs when knowledge of a result changes how people evaluate the quality of a decision even when the information available at the time of the decision is held constant. Outcomes can still be relevant for learning, so the error is not 'never look at results'; it is using luck or hindsight as if it had been available to the original decision-maker.