Protect a negotiation from the first number and from pressure to justify a position already taken.
Open situation →Reasoning Practice · Starter
The opening offer owns the range
A supplier opens at €120 per unit. The buying team immediately discusses whether €105 would be a good deal, although no independent range was prepared.
Your decision
What should the team establish before responding?
Show the best first move
A. An evidence-based range, reservation point and alternatives independent of the opening offer.
Why this move helps
The opening number frames the discussion. An independent estimate moves the negotiation back to value, alternatives and evidence.
Evidence still missing
- Comparable prices or cost drivers.
- Value of alternatives and switching costs.
- A reservation point agreed before the counteroffer.
Evidence note
Anchoring is a plausible risk because the counteroffer is derived from the opening number. The opening number may still contain useful market information.
Next action
Freeze the independent range before reviewing the supplier’s justification.
Best first lens
Anchoring Effect
Use the lens to ask a better question. It does not prove that a person or team has a cognitive bias.
Other defensible lenses
The situation may have more than one explanation.
Continue the path
Situation → skill → technique → action.
You can make a decision without pretending uncertainty has disappeared.
Build this skill →Create a reference point before seeing a strong external number or recommendation.
Run the technique →