Reasoning Practice

Practice decisions, not definitions.

Read a realistic situation, choose the best first reasoning move, inspect missing evidence and finish with a practical next action. Several lenses may fit. The exercise teaches a useful first move rather than pretending one label explains everything.

Browse by situation Browse by skill

Coverage

29 scenarios across 12 situations and 6 skills.

1. Notice

Read the decision without searching for a bias name.

2. Choose

Select the action that would make the reasoning more informative.

3. Inspect

Compare the explanation, missing evidence and alternative lenses.

4. Act

Finish with one concrete next step.

Browse by situation

Start from the decision in front of you.

Situation

Hiring and interviews

Review candidate judgments before confidence, first impressions or outcome stories become stronger than the evidence.

Starter · Hiring and interviewsThe confident first ten minutes

A candidate gives a confident opening answer. The panel spends the rest of the interview interpreting mixed evidence as proof that the candidate is strong.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Hiring and interviewsThe favourite candidate gets easier questions

The team already prefers one candidate. Interviewers ask that candidate to explain strengths, while competing candidates are pressed mainly on weaknesses.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Advanced · Hiring and interviewsThe last star hire becomes the template

A previous hire performed very well. The team now treats every feature of that hiring decision as a proven success formula, although several factors were uncertain at the time.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →

Situation

Project estimation

Estimate time and effort with an outside view instead of relying only on the current plan.

Starter · Project estimationThe date arrives before the estimate

A sponsor says the migration should finish in twelve weeks. The delivery team then estimates each work package while that date remains visible.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Project estimationA detailed plan with no outside view

A team has a detailed task plan for a data migration. It predicts 40 days, but nobody has checked how long similar migrations actually took.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Advanced · Project estimationOne failed project resets every estimate

The previous project missed its date by six months. Managers now double every estimate, even though most comparable projects had much smaller delays.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →

Situation

Production incident review

Separate what was knowable during an incident from what became obvious only after the outcome.

Starter · Production incident reviewThe root cause now looks obvious

After an outage, the failed component is easy to identify. Reviewers say the on-call engineer should have known immediately, although several alerts looked equally plausible during the incident.

Skill: MetacognitionOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Production incident reviewOne outage creates a permanent rule

A rare database failure causes a severe outage. The team proposes an expensive control for every system without checking how often the failure occurs or whether the control addresses other risks.

Skill: MetacognitionOpen scenario →

Situation

Product prioritization

Review roadmap choices without letting the loudest request, recent event or prior investment define value.

Starter · Product prioritizationThe loudest customer becomes the market

One large customer describes a painful workflow problem. The roadmap discussion treats that story as proof that most users need the same feature.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Product prioritizationToo much code to stop now

A feature has consumed eight months of work. New research shows limited demand, but the team argues that stopping would waste the investment.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →

Situation

Vendor or tool selection

Compare tools using precommitted criteria rather than demos, authority or the first price shown.

Starter · Vendor or tool selectionThe polished demo proves too much

A vendor presents a fluent AI assistant in a polished demo. The team begins describing the product as reliable and intelligent, although the critical workflow was not tested with company data.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Vendor or tool selectionThe first price defines the negotiation

A vendor opens with a three-year price of €900,000. Internal discussions now focus on whether a 15% discount is enough, although the team never estimated value or alternatives independently.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →

Situation

Forecasting under uncertainty

Make a forecast that can later be checked, updated and learned from.

Starter · Forecasting under uncertaintyOne quarter becomes the trend

Sales rose sharply last quarter. The new annual forecast assumes the same growth will continue, although the wider history is more variable.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Forecasting under uncertaintyThe risks do not add up

A team estimates a 25% chance that the project will be late. When asked separately, it gives 20% to supplier delay, 20% to testing delay and 15% to staffing delay, with overlap left undefined.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Advanced · Forecasting under uncertaintyThe forecast was “basically right”

A forecast missed badly. After the outcome, the owner says the result was always possible and that the original forecast should be read more generously.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →

Situation

Performance review

Judge performance without letting one recent result or known outcome rewrite the quality of the underlying work.

Starter · Performance reviewThe last quarter becomes the whole year

An employee had one difficult final quarter. The annual review now focuses almost entirely on that period and gives little weight to earlier results.

Skill: MetacognitionOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Performance reviewA good result proves a good process

A manager skipped required checks but the project succeeded. The review treats the success as proof that the manager’s approach was excellent.

Skill: MetacognitionOpen scenario →

Situation

Negotiation

Protect a negotiation from the first number and from pressure to justify a position already taken.

Starter · NegotiationThe opening offer owns the range

A supplier opens at €120 per unit. The buying team immediately discusses whether €105 would be a good deal, although no independent range was prepared.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Advanced · NegotiationThe team defends what it already announced

A team publicly announced that it would never accept a contract longer than one year. New evidence shows a longer term could reduce total risk, but every analysis is now used to defend the public position.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →

Situation

AI-assisted research

Use AI to expand research without treating fluent text, repeated output or model confidence as verification.

Starter · AI-assisted researchThe model supplies the first hypothesis

Before reviewing the source material, a researcher asks an AI assistant for the likely explanation. The rest of the search follows the categories in that first answer.

Skill: AI-assisted reasoningOpen scenario →
Intermediate · AI-assisted researchFluent text without inspectable support

An AI assistant gives a clear recommendation and names several studies, but the citations cannot be located. The team wants to use the recommendation because it sounds complete.

Skill: AI-assisted reasoningOpen scenario →
Advanced · AI-assisted researchFive AI summaries, one origin

Five generated summaries repeat the same market statistic. The team treats the repetition as strong agreement, but every answer appears to depend on the same unverified report.

Skill: AI-assisted reasoningOpen scenario →

Situation

Checking a repeated claim

Test whether repetition represents independent evidence or only makes a claim feel familiar.

Starter · Checking a repeated claimTen articles repeat one report

A claim appears in ten articles. Following the links shows that nine articles cite the tenth, which cites one small report.

Skill: Information verificationOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Checking a repeated claimThe correction removes the story but leaves a gap

A report corrects a false explanation for an event but gives no supported alternative. Later discussions still use the old explanation because it is the only coherent story people remember.

Skill: Information verificationOpen scenario →

Situation

Career change

Compare staying, moving or reskilling without letting salary anchors, sunk time or today's mood decide the future.

Starter · Career changeOne salary number defines the career choice

A recruiter names a salary 20% above the current role. The career discussion now revolves around that number, while learning, stability, workload and future options remain vague.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Career changeTwelve years means another year

A specialist dislikes the current path but says changing direction would waste twelve years of experience. The next year is evaluated mainly through the past investment.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Advanced · Career changeThe career change is treated as irreversible

A person feels exhausted today and considers leaving the field completely. The choice is framed as staying forever or resigning immediately, although smaller tests are possible.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →

Situation

KPI and benchmark review

Check whether a score is still a useful proxy for the real goal and whether the comparison is being interpreted consistently.

Intermediate · KPI and benchmark reviewThe benchmark score ends the discussion

A team prefers a new platform and highlights its strong benchmark score. It dismisses workload, data quality and operating constraints that are not measured by the benchmark.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Advanced · KPI and benchmark reviewA good KPI excuses a weak process

A support team meets its response-time KPI by closing tickets early and reopening them later. Leaders call the process successful because the dashboard is green.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →

Browse by skill

Train a capability across several situations.

Decision skill

Evidence evaluation

You can separate a persuasive claim from the evidence that should change your mind.

Starter · Hiring and interviewsThe confident first ten minutes

A candidate gives a confident opening answer. The panel spends the rest of the interview interpreting mixed evidence as proof that the candidate is strong.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Hiring and interviewsThe favourite candidate gets easier questions

The team already prefers one candidate. Interviewers ask that candidate to explain strengths, while competing candidates are pressed mainly on weaknesses.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Advanced · Hiring and interviewsThe last star hire becomes the template

A previous hire performed very well. The team now treats every feature of that hiring decision as a proven success formula, although several factors were uncertain at the time.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Starter · Vendor or tool selectionThe polished demo proves too much

A vendor presents a fluent AI assistant in a polished demo. The team begins describing the product as reliable and intelligent, although the critical workflow was not tested with company data.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Vendor or tool selectionThe first price defines the negotiation

A vendor opens with a three-year price of €900,000. Internal discussions now focus on whether a 15% discount is enough, although the team never estimated value or alternatives independently.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Intermediate · KPI and benchmark reviewThe benchmark score ends the discussion

A team prefers a new platform and highlights its strong benchmark score. It dismisses workload, data quality and operating constraints that are not measured by the benchmark.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Advanced · KPI and benchmark reviewA good KPI excuses a weak process

A support team meets its response-time KPI by closing tickets early and reopening them later. Leaders call the process successful because the dashboard is green.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →

Decision skill

Decision making under uncertainty

You can make a decision without pretending uncertainty has disappeared.

Starter · Product prioritizationThe loudest customer becomes the market

One large customer describes a painful workflow problem. The roadmap discussion treats that story as proof that most users need the same feature.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Product prioritizationToo much code to stop now

A feature has consumed eight months of work. New research shows limited demand, but the team argues that stopping would waste the investment.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Starter · NegotiationThe opening offer owns the range

A supplier opens at €120 per unit. The buying team immediately discusses whether €105 would be a good deal, although no independent range was prepared.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Advanced · NegotiationThe team defends what it already announced

A team publicly announced that it would never accept a contract longer than one year. New evidence shows a longer term could reduce total risk, but every analysis is now used to defend the public position.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Starter · Career changeOne salary number defines the career choice

A recruiter names a salary 20% above the current role. The career discussion now revolves around that number, while learning, stability, workload and future options remain vague.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Career changeTwelve years means another year

A specialist dislikes the current path but says changing direction would waste twelve years of experience. The next year is evaluated mainly through the past investment.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Advanced · Career changeThe career change is treated as irreversible

A person feels exhausted today and considers leaving the field completely. The choice is framed as staying forever or resigning immediately, although smaller tests are possible.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →

Decision skill

Forecasting

You can produce forecasts that are easier to challenge, compare and learn from later.

Starter · Project estimationThe date arrives before the estimate

A sponsor says the migration should finish in twelve weeks. The delivery team then estimates each work package while that date remains visible.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Project estimationA detailed plan with no outside view

A team has a detailed task plan for a data migration. It predicts 40 days, but nobody has checked how long similar migrations actually took.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Advanced · Project estimationOne failed project resets every estimate

The previous project missed its date by six months. Managers now double every estimate, even though most comparable projects had much smaller delays.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Starter · Forecasting under uncertaintyOne quarter becomes the trend

Sales rose sharply last quarter. The new annual forecast assumes the same growth will continue, although the wider history is more variable.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Forecasting under uncertaintyThe risks do not add up

A team estimates a 25% chance that the project will be late. When asked separately, it gives 20% to supplier delay, 20% to testing delay and 15% to staffing delay, with overlap left undefined.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Advanced · Forecasting under uncertaintyThe forecast was “basically right”

A forecast missed badly. After the outcome, the owner says the result was always possible and that the original forecast should be read more generously.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →

Decision skill

Metacognition

You can review your reasoning process without confusing confidence, outcome and hindsight with decision quality.

Starter · Production incident reviewThe root cause now looks obvious

After an outage, the failed component is easy to identify. Reviewers say the on-call engineer should have known immediately, although several alerts looked equally plausible during the incident.

Skill: MetacognitionOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Production incident reviewOne outage creates a permanent rule

A rare database failure causes a severe outage. The team proposes an expensive control for every system without checking how often the failure occurs or whether the control addresses other risks.

Skill: MetacognitionOpen scenario →
Starter · Performance reviewThe last quarter becomes the whole year

An employee had one difficult final quarter. The annual review now focuses almost entirely on that period and gives little weight to earlier results.

Skill: MetacognitionOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Performance reviewA good result proves a good process

A manager skipped required checks but the project succeeded. The review treats the success as proof that the manager’s approach was excellent.

Skill: MetacognitionOpen scenario →

Decision skill

Information verification

You can verify important claims without treating repetition as independent confirmation.

Starter · Checking a repeated claimTen articles repeat one report

A claim appears in ten articles. Following the links shows that nine articles cite the tenth, which cites one small report.

Skill: Information verificationOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Checking a repeated claimThe correction removes the story but leaves a gap

A report corrects a false explanation for an event but gives no supported alternative. Later discussions still use the old explanation because it is the only coherent story people remember.

Skill: Information verificationOpen scenario →

Decision skill

AI-assisted reasoning

You can use an AI system to expand reasoning while keeping important judgments independently checkable.

Starter · AI-assisted researchThe model supplies the first hypothesis

Before reviewing the source material, a researcher asks an AI assistant for the likely explanation. The rest of the search follows the categories in that first answer.

Skill: AI-assisted reasoningOpen scenario →
Intermediate · AI-assisted researchFluent text without inspectable support

An AI assistant gives a clear recommendation and names several studies, but the citations cannot be located. The team wants to use the recommendation because it sounds complete.

Skill: AI-assisted reasoningOpen scenario →
Advanced · AI-assisted researchFive AI summaries, one origin

Five generated summaries repeat the same market statistic. The team treats the repetition as strong agreement, but every answer appears to depend on the same unverified report.

Skill: AI-assisted reasoningOpen scenario →

Boundary

This is practice, not psychological assessment.

A scenario suggests a useful first lens and technique. It does not diagnose a person, prove a bias caused the decision or guarantee that the technique will improve the outcome.

How the project reviews evidence and automation