Cognitive BiasesPublic knowledge library

Decision technique

Independent estimate before the anchor

Create a reference point before seeing a strong external number or recommendation.

When to use

A specific reasoning move for a specific problem.

Before estimates, negotiations, AI recommendations or expert forecasts where the first number may become an anchor.

Procedure

Run the technique.

  1. Hide or postpone the external estimate when practical.
  2. Write your own estimate or range and assumptions.
  3. Then inspect the external number.
  4. Record why your estimate changed, if it changed.

Limit

What this technique cannot guarantee.

Independent estimates can still be poor; use reference classes and evidence when available.

Situations

Where this may be useful.

Use inHiring and interviews

Review candidate judgments before confidence, first impressions or outcome stories become stronger than the evidence.

Open →
Use inProject estimation

Estimate time and effort with an outside view instead of relying only on the current plan.

Open →
Use inVendor or tool selection

Compare tools using precommitted criteria rather than demos, authority or the first price shown.

Open →
Use inNegotiation

Protect a negotiation from the first number and from pressure to justify a position already taken.

Open →
Use inAI-assisted research

Use AI to expand research without treating fluent text, repeated output or model confidence as verification.

Open →

Evidence-linked concepts

Why this check may matter.

Related lensAnchoring Effect

Read the evidence and limits before treating this technique as relevant.

Open →

Practice this technique

See when the move becomes useful.

Starter · Project estimationThe date arrives before the estimate

A sponsor says the migration should finish in twelve weeks. The delivery team then estimates each work package while that date remains visible.

Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →
Intermediate · Vendor or tool selectionThe first price defines the negotiation

A vendor opens with a three-year price of €900,000. Internal discussions now focus on whether a 15% discount is enough, although the team never estimated value or alternatives independently.

Skill: Evidence evaluationOpen scenario →
Starter · NegotiationThe opening offer owns the range

A supplier opens at €120 per unit. The buying team immediately discusses whether €105 would be a good deal, although no independent range was prepared.

Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →
Starter · AI-assisted researchThe model supplies the first hypothesis

Before reviewing the source material, a researcher asks an AI assistant for the likely explanation. The rest of the search follows the categories in that first answer.

Skill: AI-assisted reasoningOpen scenario →