Protect a negotiation from the first number and from pressure to justify a position already taken.
Open situation →Reasoning Practice · Advanced
The team defends what it already announced
A team publicly announced that it would never accept a contract longer than one year. New evidence shows a longer term could reduce total risk, but every analysis is now used to defend the public position.
Your decision
What would make an update legitimate rather than convenient?
Show the best first move
A. Apply evidence thresholds and review conditions defined before the new offer arrived.
Why this move helps
A public commitment can shape later evidence use. Predefined update criteria allow change when relevant evidence arrives without silently rewriting the logic.
Evidence still missing
- Original reasons for the one-year limit.
- Evidence that changes those reasons.
- Future risks and benefits of each contract term.
Evidence note
Confirmation bias may influence the analysis, while reputation and bargaining strategy are also real considerations that should be stated separately.
Next action
Record the evidence threshold for changing the position and test the new offer against it.
Best first lens
Confirmation Bias
Use the lens to ask a better question. It does not prove that a person or team has a cognitive bias.
Other defensible lenses
The situation may have more than one explanation.
Continue the path
Situation → skill → technique → action.
You can make a decision without pretending uncertainty has disappeared.
Build this skill →Decide in advance what evidence should cause a forecast or decision to change.
Run the technique →