Decision technique

Consider the opposite

Force a preferred explanation to compete with a credible alternative.

When to use

A specific reasoning move for a specific problem.

When evidence collection is drifting toward support for one preferred conclusion.

Procedure

Run the technique.

  1. Write the current conclusion in one sentence.
  2. Write the strongest plausible alternative.
  3. List evidence that would be more likely if the alternative were true.
  4. Search for or request that evidence before finalizing the decision.

Limit

What this technique cannot guarantee.

A weak straw-man alternative adds little value. The alternative must be genuinely plausible.

Situations

Where this may be useful.

Use inHiring and interviews

Review candidate judgments before confidence, first impressions or outcome stories become stronger than the evidence.

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Use inPerformance review

Judge performance without letting one recent result or known outcome rewrite the quality of the underlying work.

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Use inNegotiation

Protect a negotiation from the first number and from pressure to justify a position already taken.

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Use inAI-assisted research

Use AI to expand research without treating fluent text, repeated output or model confidence as verification.

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Evidence-linked concepts

Why this check may matter.

Related lensConfirmation Bias

Read the evidence and limits before treating this technique as relevant.

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