FallacyReasoning & flexibility · Logical Fallacy · Entry 66
Gambler’s Fallacy – when you think the past changes the future odds
Do you think that after flipping five heads in a row, tails is ‘due’ to happen next? That’s Gambler’s Fallacy – the mistaken belief that past events influence future probabilities, even when each event is independent.
Where it can show up
- Gambling – believing that after a losing streak, you’re ‘bound’ to win soon.
- Lotteries – assuming a number that hasn’t come up in a while is ‘overdue.’
- Life decisions – thinking that after a series of bad events, good luck must finally arrive, even though the odds remain the same.
A practical countermeasure
- Understand that random events are independent – dice don’t ‘remember’ past rolls.
- Don’t look for patterns where there are none – long streaks don’t change probabilities.
- Use logic, not intuition – the likelihood of each event remains unchanged, no matter what happened before.
