Mechanism family · v2 taxonomy
Probability & risk
Patterns involving uncertainty, probability estimates, base rates, and perceived risk.
Reviewed mapping
6 canonical entries currently belong to this family.
This hub combines direct category mappings with record-level reviews. Duplicate aliases and ambiguous entries stay outside the family discovery layer.
Cognitive BiasExaggerated Expectation – when reality is always less extreme than you imaginedthe tendency to predict more extreme outcomes than what actually occurs.Read entry Cognitive BiasOptimism Bias – when you believe things will go well, even if the odds say otherwisethe tendency to underestimate negative events and overestimate positive outcomes.Read entry Cognitive BiasPeltzman Effect – when feeling safe makes you take more risksthe tendency to offset increased safety by engaging in riskier behavior.Read entry Cognitive BiasPessimism Bias – when you believe everything will go wrongthe tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative events, especially in people prone to depression.Read entry Cognitive BiasProbability Matching – when you guess instead of picking the best optionthe tendency to match choices to probabilities instead of always picking the best option.Read entry Probability BiasSubadditivity Effect – when unpacking changes probability estimatesThe subadditivity effect occurs when separate estimates for parts of an event add up to more than the estimate for the same event described as one category. Unpacking changes the jRead entry
