Mechanism family · v2 taxonomy
Probability & risk
Patterns involving uncertainty, probability estimates, base rates, and perceived risk.
Reviewed mapping
6 canonical entries currently belong to this family.
This hub combines direct category mappings with record-level reviews. Duplicate aliases and ambiguous entries stay outside the family discovery layer.
Cognitive BiasExaggerated Expectation – when reality is always less extreme than you imaginedthe tendency to predict more extreme outcomes than what actually occurs.Read entry Cognitive BiasOptimism Bias – when you believe things will go well, even if the odds say otherwisethe tendency to underestimate negative events and overestimate positive outcomes.Read entry Cognitive BiasPeltzman Effect – when feeling safe makes you take more risksthe tendency to offset increased safety by engaging in riskier behavior.Read entry Cognitive BiasPessimism Bias – when you believe everything will go wrongthe tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative events, especially in people prone to depression.Read entry Cognitive BiasProbability Matching – when you guess instead of picking the best optionthe tendency to match choices to probabilities instead of always picking the best option.Read entry Probability BiasSubadditivity Effect – the whole seems less likely than the sum of its partspeople perceive the probability of a whole event as lower than the sum of its mutually exclusive components.Read entry
