Make a forecast that can later be checked, updated and learned from.
Open situation →Reasoning Practice · Starter
One quarter becomes the trend
Sales rose sharply last quarter. The new annual forecast assumes the same growth will continue, although the wider history is more variable.
Your decision
What should the forecast use as its starting point?
Show the best first move
B. A broader distribution of comparable periods, then an explicit adjustment for current conditions.
Why this move helps
Recent evidence matters, but it should be compared with a broader base rate. The adjustment should explain why this quarter is more informative than the rest.
Evidence still missing
- Historical distribution of comparable periods.
- Specific drivers of the recent change.
- Evidence that those drivers will continue.
Evidence note
Availability may give the latest quarter extra weight. A genuine structural change can justify a large adjustment when supported by independent evidence.
Next action
Set the historical baseline and document each reason for moving away from it.
Best first lens
Availability Heuristic
Use the lens to ask a better question. It does not prove that a person or team has a cognitive bias.
Other defensible lenses
The situation may have more than one explanation.
Continue the path
Situation → skill → technique → action.
You can produce forecasts that are easier to challenge, compare and learn from later.
Build this skill →Compare a vivid case with the broader frequency or distribution that should inform the judgment.
Run the technique →