Review roadmap choices without letting the loudest request, recent event or prior investment define value.
Open →Decision technique
Base-rate check
Compare a vivid case with the broader frequency or distribution that should inform the judgment.
When to use
A specific reasoning move for a specific problem.
When one story, recent event or exceptional example is carrying too much weight.
Procedure
Run the technique.
- State the event or outcome you are judging.
- Find the relevant denominator or broader comparison set.
- Estimate the base rate before focusing on case-specific details.
- Explain what case evidence is strong enough to move away from that baseline.
Limit
What this technique cannot guarantee.
Base rates can be irrelevant if the comparison population is badly chosen.
Situations
Where this may be useful.
Evidence-linked concepts
Why this check may matter.
Read the evidence and limits before treating this technique as relevant.
Open →Practice this technique
See when the move becomes useful.
One large customer describes a painful workflow problem. The roadmap discussion treats that story as proof that most users need the same feature.
Skill: Decision making under uncertaintyOpen scenario →Sales rose sharply last quarter. The new annual forecast assumes the same growth will continue, although the wider history is more variable.
Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →A team estimates a 25% chance that the project will be late. When asked separately, it gives 20% to supplier delay, 20% to testing delay and 15% to staffing delay, with overlap left undefined.
Skill: ForecastingOpen scenario →