Review roadmap choices without letting the loudest request, recent event or prior investment define value.
Open situation →Reasoning Practice · Starter
The loudest customer becomes the market
One large customer describes a painful workflow problem. The roadmap discussion treats that story as proof that most users need the same feature.
Your decision
What evidence should be checked before reprioritizing the roadmap?
Show the best first move
A. How common the workflow and pain are across the relevant customer population.
Why this move helps
A vivid case can be important without being representative. A base-rate check asks how often the problem occurs and for whom.
Evidence still missing
- Number of affected customers and users.
- Severity and frequency of the problem.
- Evidence from customers who do not request the feature.
Evidence note
Availability bias may increase the story’s weight, but a single strategic customer can still justify action for commercial reasons. Those reasons should be explicit.
Next action
Estimate prevalence and value before comparing the feature with other roadmap options.
Best first lens
Availability Heuristic
Use the lens to ask a better question. It does not prove that a person or team has a cognitive bias.
Other defensible lenses
The situation may have more than one explanation.
Continue the path
Situation → skill → technique → action.
You can make a decision without pretending uncertainty has disappeared.
Build this skill →Compare a vivid case with the broader frequency or distribution that should inform the judgment.
Run the technique →