Reasoning Practice · Intermediate

The first price defines the negotiation

A vendor opens with a three-year price of €900,000. Internal discussions now focus on whether a 15% discount is enough, although the team never estimated value or alternatives independently.

Your decision

What should be created before the next commercial round?

  1. A

    An independent value range, reservation point and comparison with alternatives.

  2. B

    A more detailed explanation of why €900,000 is the vendor’s normal price.

  3. C

    A discount target expressed only as a percentage of the opening price.

Show the best first move

A. An independent value range, reservation point and comparison with alternatives.

Why this move helps

The opening number defines the frame. An independent estimate gives the team a separate basis for price and scope decisions.

Evidence still missing

  • Expected value and total cost of ownership.
  • Comparable offers or internal alternatives.
  • A reservation point defined before the next offer.

Evidence note

Anchoring is plausible because all later numbers are expressed around the opening price. The opening price can still be reasonable if independent evidence supports it.

Next action

Write an independent commercial range and the assumptions behind it.

Best first lens

Anchoring Effect

Use the lens to ask a better question. It does not prove that a person or team has a cognitive bias.

Read the evidence review

Other defensible lenses

The situation may have more than one explanation.

Continue the path

Situation → skill → technique → action.

SituationVendor or tool selection

Compare tools using precommitted criteria rather than demos, authority or the first price shown.

Open situation →
SkillEvidence evaluation

You can separate a persuasive claim from the evidence that should change your mind.

Build this skill →
TechniqueIndependent estimate before the anchor

Create a reference point before seeing a strong external number or recommendation.

Run the technique →

All reasoning scenarios